Market Update April 2022

Below is a lite version of our monthly energy & carbon market update.

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  • AEMO released the 2022 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), which presented highly uncertain future gas demand scenarios, with higher volatility and increased ‘peakiness’ predicted for gas usage for NEM power generation.
  • Queensland set an all-time demand record of 10,119 MW on March 8th leading to extreme price volatility and AEMO declaring a LOR2 condition.
  • Electricity spot prices rose dramatically in Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, who all experienced greater than 20% month-on-month price increases, while Victoria and Tasmania were relatively flat.
  • Flat Futures contracts all rose significantly, with South Australian and Victorian Futures rising 18-21% and both New South Wales and Queensland Futures rising more than 40%.
  • Gas spot prices rose considerably, up by 23% across the East Coast to an average of $12.3/GJ. The Japan-Korea netback price rose 48% to $44.6/GJ, with forward values indicating prices of above $35/GJ until March 2023.
  • STCs rose slightly to $39.90/cert.

 

  • ACCU prices fell considerably due to announced changes to the ERF fixed delivery contracts.

  • LGCs rose across all vintages except Cal 24, with pronounced rises for Cal 22 and Cal 26 LGCs.

Feature 1: AEMO releases 2022 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO)

On March 29th AEMO released the 2022 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), providing their forecasts of annual gas consumption, demand, and reporting on the adequacy of eastern and south-eastern Australian gas markets to supply forecast demand over a 20-year outlook period.

Feature 2: Queensland sets all time demand record

On the evening of March 8th, Queensland set an all-time demand record, with instantaneous demand reaching 10,119 MW at 17:30 (NEM time). The previous record was 10,052 MW on the 13th of February 2019.

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