Below is a lite version of our monthly carbon & energy market update.
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- High international fuel input prices, low coal generation availability and lower variable renewable energy generation saw average NEM wholesale energy prices surge to their highest on record ($286/MWh) with an incredible 71% month-on-month price increase.
- Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia had monthly average NEM spot prices of greater than $300/MWh, with Victoria and Tasmania both above $200/MWh.
- Flat Futures for CY2023 rose by an average of 66%, with Queensland Flat Futures rising to above $200/MWh.
- LNG netback prices fell by 28% to $28/GJ but domestic gas prices NEM-wide rose an astonishing 128% to end the month at $37.2/GJ.
- STCs continued to remain flat just shy of $40/certificate.
- Large amounts of coal generation were offline in April & May (on average, 26% of the NEM’s coal capacity, or ~ 6GW), and with lower variable renewable energy generation, more expensive hydro and gas generation was needed to fill the gap.
- Due to the extreme pricing experienced in the NEM spot market, at the time of writing four NEM states (NSW, QLD, VIC & SA) are currently under administered pricing with a maximum price of $300/MWh.
- ACCU prices rose 25% to $35.25/certificate after results from the federal election.
- LGC prices were largely flat, except for Cal26 LGCs, which rose 12% to $30.75/certificate.
Feature 1: Domestic Wholesale Spot Price Drivers
The month of May’s average wholesale energy price for the mainland NEM hit a record high of $303/MWh – this is nearly double the previous high set in January 2019 at $169/MWh.
Feature 2: Administered pricing across the NEM
At the time of writing, four states in the NEM are subject to administered pricing by AEMO (QLD, NSW, SA & VIC).
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